⚡ VolArb Bot

What it does

Traditional options markets and Polymarket prediction markets often price the same events — but through completely different mechanisms. Options markets use implied volatility derived from supply/demand for contracts. Polymarket uses a CLOB order book with binary outcomes. When those two disagree significantly on the same event, one of them is wrong. This bot finds those disagreements.

How it scans

• Cross-venue monitoring — Compares options-implied volatility from major exchanges against Polymarket contract prices for the same underlying events
• CLOB depth filtering — Checks order book depth before signaling to avoid illiquid markets where you can't actually execute
• Conviction scoring (0-10) — Each signal is scored before delivery based on spread size, liquidity, and historical accuracy of similar setups
• Confidence bands — Signals include upper/lower bounds on the expected edge, not just a point estimate
• NC sub-scanner — A secondary scanner that catches non-correlated arbitrage opportunities within Polymarket itself

What you receive

Each alert includes the market, the implied vol reading, the Polymarket price, the calculated spread, conviction score, and CLOB depth relative to average. You get the full picture to decide if the opportunity is worth taking.

Current status

This bot is actively being tuned. The core scanning logic is live and producing signals, but we're still refining the conviction scoring and false-positive filtering. Backtesting has been promising and live results are encouraging — but this is the newest of the three bots. That's why it's only available in the Venture and Apex tiers.